China's Highlight in the global downturn 2013 macr

  • Detail

China's bright spot in the global downturn 2013 macroeconomic outlook

China's bright spot in the global downturn 2013 macroeconomic outlook

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the outbreak and deterioration of the European crisis is the most important event in the global economic field in the past three years. Affected by the crisis, the global economic growth rate fell from 5.1% in 2010 to 3.8% in 2011, and then fell to 3.3% in 2012 (according to the prediction of IMF 2012 10 as the set value within ± 2%; the rate ≥ 0.05% FS/s, the same below). Whether it's hair

the outbreak and deterioration of the European crisis is the most important event in the global economic field in the past three years. Affected by the crisis, the global economic growth rate fell from 5.1% in 2010 to 3.8% in 2011, and then to 3.3% in 2012 (the same below according to the forecast of IMF World Economic Outlook in October 2012). Both developed and emerging market economies experienced a slowdown in economic growth during this period. 2013 will still be a bleak year for world economic growth. According to the IMF's latest forecast, the global economic growth rate in 2013 was only 3.6%, while the economic growth rates of the United States, the euro zone and Japan, the three major developed economies, will reach 2.1%, 0.2% and 1.2% respectively, still significantly lower than their potential growth rates. The situation of emerging markets and developing economies is relatively optimistic, and the overall economic growth rate is expected to rebound from 5.3% in 2012 to 5.6% in 2013

developed economies are generally facing crises

developed economies are generally facing the following problems: high unemployment rate, weak growth of domestic consumption and investment, and high overall debt ratio. In order to stabilize the financial market and boost the real economy, developed economies have generally implemented expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Of course, the loose fiscal policies of some countries have resulted in the high ratio of government debt to GDP, and even a debt crisis. Nevertheless, at present, the United States, Europe, Japan, Britain and other countries are implementing quantitative easing policies to varying degrees. The collective quantitative easing policy of the central banks of developed countries not only exacerbated the volatility of exchange rates between major currencies, but also exacerbated the volatility of short-term capital flows. The major economies in the world face both the risk of falling into the so-called "exchange rate war" and the threat of "trade war"

China may have a crisis triggered by overcapacity in 2013

China's economy has also experienced a process of slowing growth in the past three years. The GDP growth rate in 2010 and 2011 was 10.4% and 9.2% respectively, and may significantly fall back to 7.8% in 2012. There are three main factors for the gradual weakening of China's economy: first, the macro-control of the domestic real estate market has led to the continuous decline in the growth rate of real estate investment; Second, weak external demand, RMB appreciation and domestic factor price adjustment led to a decline in export growth; Third, the effect of the last round of macro stimulus policies on improving the safety and environmental protection performance of plastic packaging gradually disappeared. The continuous slowdown of China's economy has triggered concerns in the market, so that some people predict that China's economy will have a hard landing, and even a crisis triggered by overcapacity may break out in 2013

however, just as the IMF predicts that China's economy will still achieve 8.2% growth in 2013, the author believes that if there are no major outstanding events (such as the serious deterioration of the European debt crisis, the outbreak of local military conflicts, etc.), China's economic growth will reach around 8% in 2013. This means that China's economy can achieve a soft landing again. In the global economic downturn, China's economy may still be the biggest bright spot. The reason for making a more optimistic judgment is that from the perspective of the troika of macroeconomic growth, consumption, investment and exports are expected to maintain relatively stable growth in 2013, and the probability of significant decline is low

consumption, investment and export are expected to maintain relatively stable growth in 2013

first, consumption. In the past few years, the employment market has been stable and tight, the income of urban and rural residents (especially the income of migrant workers) has continued to grow rapidly, and the social security system has been further strengthened, which has promoted the stable growth of residents' consumption. It is rumored that after the 18th CPC National Congress, the Chinese government may introduce new income distribution policies, and the appropriate inclination of national income to vulnerable groups will help further improve the consumption capacity of groups with strong marginal propensity to consume. At present, China is in the mid-term stage of urbanization and the critical period of consumer upgrading. It is expected that housing, automobile, education, health, tourism and other fields will continue to become consumption hotspots in the future. In addition, after the outbreak of the European debt crisis, the Chinese government once again adopted the policy of stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, providing financial subsidies for the sales of cars, energy-saving household appliances and other products to stimulate the consumption of related products

the growth of residents' consumption is also constrained by the following factors

of course, the growth of residents' consumption is also constrained by the following factors: many cities still implement purchase restriction policies for real estate and cars; Because the social security system is still imperfect and the income distribution gap between residents is too large, the prudent saving motivation is strong and the social average consumption propensity is low; After a period of rapid growth, the growth rate of migrant workers' income may slow down (the reason may be the decline in profit growth of private enterprises), etc. To sum up, the author believes that the nominal growth rate of total social retail consumption in 2013 may be around 15%

next, investment. Investment can be roughly divided into manufacturing investment, real estate investment and infrastructure investment. Despite the problems of high inventory and overcapacity, the growth rate of China's manufacturing investment in 2013 is difficult to improve significantly, but it is still expected to remain stable on the whole. The gradual implementation of the 36 rules for the implementation of the new non-public sector will help stimulate the growth of private investment. From the perspective of supply and demand, the macro-control of real estate has led to tight supply in many cities. In 2013, there is a high probability that house prices will rebound and the growth rate of real estate investment will rebound. From historical experience, after the Party Congress and the change of local government, there is always a wave of strong demand for local government investment, and I'm afraid this time is no exception. Another historical experience is that during the implementation of each five-year plan, the investment growth rate in the middle and early stages (the second to third years) is generally high, and 2013 happens to be the third year of the 12th Five Year Plan

fixed asset investment growth the booming development of China's automotive industry is also facing the following series of adverse factors

however, the growth of fixed asset investment is also facing the following series of adverse factors: first, for manufacturing investment, the pressure of de stocking, de capacity and even de industrialization is still huge, labor costs are still rising, and the current sharp decline in profits of industrial enterprises may affect the confidence and ability of entrepreneurs to invest; Secondly, for real estate investment, the macro-control policy may still be maintained, and the supply of construction land is quite limited, which will limit the room for the rebound of real estate investment growth after the rebound of house prices; Thirdly, for infrastructure investment, local governments or local financing platforms, as the main body of investment, are currently heavily indebted. With the cooling of the land market, the financial resources and financing capacity of local governments are limited, making it difficult to carry out a new round of large-scale infrastructure investment. To sum up, the author believes that the nominal growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2013 is expected to remain around 20%

again, export is the area most affected by the sluggish global economic growth. Indeed, the export industry is currently facing internal and external difficulties. Externally, the growth of the global economy, especially the developed economies, is sluggish, the trade protectionism tendency of the developed economies is significantly enhanced, China's terms of trade are still deteriorating, and the external pressure for the continued appreciation of the RMB may increase periodically; Internally, the continuous appreciation of the RMB and the rise in labor prices, as well as stricter environmental protection and energy conservation standards, have increased the production costs of export enterprises, which may push up export prices (damage export competitiveness due to its abstract concept), or compress the profit space of export enterprises. However, the future export growth is not a dark prospect. First, if the recent market rescue measures of the European central bank can stabilize the European debt crisis and the U.S. economy can successfully overcome the impact of the "fiscal cliff", the international economic situation is expected to improve; Second, with the growth of China ASEAN Free Trade Area, the possible launch of more potential free trade areas, and the efforts of Chinese enterprises to go global, China's export market is expected to be further diversified, especially to emerging markets and developing countries; Third, the Chinese government has also begun to implement a new round of export stabilization policies, such as export tax rebates. To sum up, the author believes that the nominal growth rate of China's exports in 2013 is expected to reach about 10%

12 next page

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI