The downward trend of the hottest ship price is ob

2022-07-29
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The downward trend of ship price is obvious. It is difficult for China's shipbuilding industry to recover.

according to the data recently released by the China Shipbuilding Industry Association, in the first three quarters, China's shipbuilding industry continued to achieve substantial growth in shipbuilding completion and new orders, the main economic indicators maintained double-digit growth, and the overall economic operation was good. However, the change of RMB exchange rate has an obvious impact on the shipping industry, and the ship price has an obvious downward trend. In addition, due to the weak recovery foundation of the shipbuilding market, the risks faced by the shipbuilding industry have not been eliminated

a data

handheld orders continued to rise, the growth rate of various indicators continued to decline, and the service life was long

in the first nine months, 45.82 million deadweight tons of shipbuilding were completed nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 65.0%. New orders for ships reached 50.71 million deadweight tons, three times that of the same period last year

in September, driven by VLCC and Panamax bulk carriers, the number of new orders for ships in the world rose sharply, while Chinese shipping enterprises still performed prominently in accepting orders, especially in accepting container ships. In September, Shanghai Shipyard Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. undertook 8 3800teu (standard container) container ships, and Jiangsu Yangzi River Shipyard Co., Ltd. undertook 2 2500teu container ships, continuing to change the single structure that bulk carriers account for too much in China's hand-held orders

as the number of new ship orders undertaken in September continued to exceed the number of shipbuilding completed in that month, China's trend of holding ship orders to stop falling and recover from the end of April continued. By the end of September, China's hand-held ship orders had reached 194.74 million deadweight tons, up 3.5% over the end of 2009 and 1.2% over the same period last year

from January to September, a total of 40 ship orders with 749000 deadweight tons were cancelled nationwide, accounting for about 0.38% of the total orders for hand-held ships at the end of September. The key monitoring shipping enterprises did not cancel their orders in September

among various economic indicators, the total industrial output continued to grow, but the growth rate decreased significantly. In the first nine months, 2054 Shipbuilding Enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total industrial output value of 486billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2% and a decrease of 8.3 percentage points. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 370.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.6% and a decrease of 14.1 percentage points; The ship supporting industry was 55.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, a decrease of 16.2 percentage points; The ship repair and ship dismantling industry reached 55.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2% and an increase of 20.4 percentage points

the growth rate of ship exports also continued to decline. From January to September, shipbuilding enterprises completed the export of 37.71 million deadweight tons, accounting for 82.3% of the total shipbuilding completion; 38.84 million dwt of new orders for export ships, accounting for 76.6% of the total new orders; By the end of September, orders for hand-held export ships had reached 17.01 million deadweight tons, accounting for 87.3% of the total. The export delivery value of Shipbuilding Enterprises above designated size was RMB 212.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, so there was no need for flexible packaging manufacturers to reduce the growth rate by two percentage points. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 178.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, a decrease of 9.5 percentage points; The ship supporting industry was 7.3 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, a decrease of 20.7 percentage points; The ship repair and ship dismantling industry reached 24.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, an increase of 25 percentage points

in the first eight months, shipbuilding enterprises maintained growth in their main business income and total profits by controlling investment in fixed assets, centrally purchasing materials, strengthening centralized capital management, broadening financing channels, and paying attention to cost reduction and efficiency increase. The growth rate of the total profits of the whole industry is 6.6 percentage points higher than that of the main business income

From January to August, the main business income of Shipbuilding Enterprises above designated size was 360billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, a decrease of 10.5 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Among them, shipbuilding was 267.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4% and a decrease of 20.2 percentage points; The manufacturing industry of ship auxiliary products was 44.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, a decrease of 13. You must adjust the light intensity by moving the condenser to make it lower than the correct height 7 percentage points; The ship repair and ship dismantling industry reached 44.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, an increase of 25.2 percentage points

the total profit of Shipbuilding Enterprises above designated size was 27.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7% and an increase of 38.2 percentage points. Among them, the shipbuilding industry reached 22.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.7%, an increase of 38.3 percentage points; The manufacturing industry of ship supporting products reached 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, a decrease of 17.2 percentage points; The ship repair and ship dismantling industry reached 2.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% and a decrease of 30.1 percentage points

b analysis

it is an indisputable fact that the ship price is declining and the profit of ship enterprises is declining

experts say that according to the data of the previous three quarters, the performance of the ship market is significantly better than expected. Nevertheless, a notable feature is that since last year, ship prices have fallen seriously. The ship price has rebounded this year, but it is still not good. The current new ship price has dropped by 30% ~ 40% compared with the historical peak in 2008, and some ship types have even exceeded 40%. In addition, the sharp drop in ship prices and the current sharp drop in investment costs have made ship owners increase their efforts to order. However, it must be noted that most orders this year did not come from the real endogenous demand of the market, but from the "bottom hunting" operation of non mainstream ship owners and speculative capital

while the ship price fell, the shipbuilding cost increased further. Experts said that labor costs, raw material costs, capital costs and management costs due to tight monetary policy and increased interest rates, plus other unpredictable factors, are expected to rise in the next few years. It is an indisputable fact that the temperature in highly enclosed containers during long-distance transportation will rise and the profits of shipping enterprises will decline

the impact of RMB exchange rate change is obvious

China Shipbuilding Industry Association said that at present, the RMB exchange rate change has and will continue to have a significant impact on the industry

compared with other industries, the impact of RMB appreciation on the shipbuilding industry is more prominent and serious. It is estimated that for every 1% appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the revenue from hand-held orders of shipbuilding enterprises will decrease by about 4billion yuan. Since China restarted the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism on June 19 this year, the RMB has appreciated by more than 2% against the US dollar, resulting in a decrease of nearly 10 billion yuan in the revenue of the shipbuilding industry. If it continues to appreciate, the losses will be even greater

since the outbreak of the financial crisis, ship prices have generally decreased by 20% ~ 30%, and some ships have even decreased by 40%. The China Shipping Association said that the appreciation of the RMB would make China's shipping industry even worse. Since 2013, it is possible to face losses in the whole industry. At the same time, RMB appreciation will increase China's shipbuilding cost. In the international market price competition determined by the overall supply and demand relationship, it will seriously weaken the price competitive advantage of China's shipbuilding products and widen the international competitiveness gap with advanced shipbuilding countries. In addition, the appreciation of RMB is conducive to improving the competitiveness of foreign ship supporting enterprises. In order to reduce costs, shipyards are more optimistic about imported equipment, and the production environment of China's ship supporting enterprises will be even worse

unbalance of ship type structure

the problem of unbalance of single ship type structure can not be ignored. At present, many shipbuilding enterprises rely too much on the bulk carrier market, which also leads to the overall overcapacity of the shipbuilding industry. At the same time, due to the unbalanced ship structure, the high-end capacity is still insufficient. Experts said that in the future market, the bulk carrier that has been the dominant position may no longer be the mainstream. At present, both the global bulk carrier shipping and shipbuilding markets are in surplus; With the growth of world refining capacity and the change of layout, the demand for global product oil tankers, especially large product oil tankers, is relatively active; At the same time, the development of the container ship market is also optimistic about the next step. At present, the inquiry of the container ship newbuilding market has become active

if the annual turnover in 2010 exceeds 100million deadweight tons, the probability of new ship turnover in 2011 to increase again on the basis of this year is low according to the current macroeconomic situation and the supply-demand relationship of the shipping market

c forecast

it is difficult to make big changes in the market in the fourth quarter. Focus on the market segments or turn for the better.

for the industry trend in the fourth quarter, most experts believe that according to the current operating trend of the ship market, the market trend in the fourth quarter of this year will not change significantly on the whole, and the market will still maintain the average monthly new orders of 8million ~ 10million DWT. The total number of new orders for the whole year will exceed 100million DWT

from the perspective of ship type demand, the bulk carrier market will gradually weaken, the oil tanker market will gradually become the backbone, and the container ship market will become more active

in September, the Clarkson new ship price index was reported at 141 points, unchanged from the previous month, up 5 points from the lowest value in January 2010. From the perspective of the trend of ship price level, the price of new ships will basically stabilize in the next three months, the prices of oil tankers and container ships may rise slightly, and the prices of individual bulk carriers may fall slightly

it is less likely that the turnover of new ships will continue to increase next year. Statistics show that, from the perspective of the change trend of new ship transactions, the demand has always fluctuated, and the new ship transaction volume rarely continues to decline or rise for several consecutive years. Experts said that if the annual turnover in 2010 exceeded 100million deadweight tons, based on the current macroeconomic situation and the supply-demand relationship of the shipping market, the probability of new ship turnover in 2011 growing again on the basis of this year is low. This is because, on the one hand, the order demand in 2010 exceeded the expectation, but most of the order demand came from the external demand rather than the real internal demand; On the other hand, the orders in 2010 are, to some extent, overdrafts on the demand in 2011; In addition, the financing cost will not continue to hover at a low level. The demand for orders created by factors such as low ship price, low financing cost, homogenization trend of ship owner's business structure, speculative demand, etc. is not stable

from the development trend of market segments in 2011, the trend of market demand diversification is more obvious, and the proportion of bulk carrier orders will drop significantly; The oil tanker market will continue to develop in 2010; The container ship market has become more active and has stronger support for the overall market; The special ship market (PCC, LPG ship, LNG ship, etc.) may be further improved. It should be noted that the large and super large container ship market will also be active in advance, and the large-scale container ship will once again become a hot spot in the industry

for enterprises, experts suggest that shipping enterprises should adjust their product structure in time according to the development situation of the market, and increase the R & D and development of other ship types, especially oil tankers and container ships. Once the market is active, they will be able to accept orders

in addition, with the low-cost advantage becoming more and more difficult to sustain, accelerating the transformation has become an urgent problem for shipbuilding enterprises. Experts said that shipbuilding enterprises must take advantage of the market space brought by the low-cost advantage to improve their technical level as soon as possible, carry out research and development on Key Technologies of green and environmentally friendly ship types, and design and develop ship types that conform to the international mainstream, so as to enhance their international competitiveness

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