The domestic steel price trend in the second half

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Domestic steel price trend in the second half of the year: developing in an inverted "U" shape

for China's steel industry, the steel market downturn continued in the first half of 2012, with only a short rebound in mid April; Then came the sideways consolidation in early June, but also lost the momentum of price rise due to weak demand. On the whole, in the first half of China's steel industry, steel enterprises continued to suffer losses, steel prices were easy to fall but difficult to rise, and the support for raw material costs was significantly weakened. Time has come to the second half of the year. Analysts pointed out that a series of investment plans from the state and signs of the right turn in the real estate industry show that; In the future, the steel price trend may show an inverted "U" shape under the phased release of demand

there is a great possibility that the steel price at the seasonal demand low point in June will fluctuate to build a bottom.

although the steel price trend at work is basically consistent with the same period in 2011, the market's expected target for June has changed; From the optimistic about the demand for steel from the affordable housing project in 2011 to the optimistic about the new round of national economic stimulus plan, it is a pity that the steel price in June basically ended at a low level and did not achieve the expected market; As a result, the steel market has been cast a negative shadow, and the positive factors in the later stage may be further weakened

at present, the high temperature weather in summer has officially entered, and it is generally hot in East, central and South China. As a result, the progress of outdoor projects with the largest steel consumption has to be reduced, which makes the already weak steel demand fundamentals even worse. In the absence of support, the steel price is more likely to fall than rise as a whole. But at the same time, several factors will also check and balance the space for steel prices to fall sharply; First, the debt crisis in the euro zone has temporarily gained positive support, and the prices of computers and printing airports in global financial markets and commodity markets have stabilized; Second, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore and steel billets remain strong, and there is little possibility of another sharp fall in the short term; That is to say, the steel price is about 4000 yuan, and the steel support on the cost is strong; Third, although the steel plant continued to maintain a high production intensity, the weak decline in output was bound to become a trend. In the later stage, the steel plant cut prices to clear the internal ultra-high inventory, which was the main direction at that time. From this point of view, we believe that during the period from July to the end of August, the steel price as a whole should continue to follow the route of shock bottoming, which may be repeated during the period, but the range can be maintained at about 70 yuan

the demand release accelerated in January, and the steel price ushered in a staged rebound

this season was originally the high incidence period of the "golden nine silver ten" market in the traditional steel market; There will be inertia in the steel market. Although in the same period of 2011, the failure of affordable housing market directly led to the change from "gold, silver and ten" to "copper, nine iron and ten", in October 2011, the price of steel and the price of ore plummeted; However, the fundamental reason is that the market expected too much of the affordable housing market before, and the steel traders and steel mills lost rationality in the sharp rise of steel prices in the peak gambling season. In 2012, this "emotional competition" will certainly be reduced to the lowest

during this period, a series of policies and favorable expectations will be focused on the actual demand for steel; A series of major project investment in early June should enter the construction stage; At the same time, the 18million affordable housing projects planned in 2012 have been completed relatively little before; With the arrival of the final rush period of local governments, efforts to speed up construction have to be enhanced; In addition, the commercial housing development tide that has been suppressed for a year may come again; By the end of July, the demand for steel house purchase in China has to be released in advance, although the commercial housing is still in the stage of de stocking; However, the increased efforts to withdraw funds and the substantial easing of funds have made real estate enterprises unable to bear loneliness

the more important development momentum is that the capital level that has been restricting the development of downstream industries is further relaxed; Since the central bank cut interest rates on June 8, less than a month later on July 6, the central bank has again implemented asymmetric interest rate cuts, in which the deposit interest rate has been reduced by 25 basis points and the loan interest rate has been reduced by 31 basis points; It is proved from the side that China's economic trend in June was far lower than expected; The intention of the state to stimulate the loan demand of various industries is very obvious; In this way, the above-mentioned investments and projects will get a more relaxed environment for financing; The possibility of failure or delay in commencement due to lack of funds is greatly reduced. In addition, the recent national 12th Five Year Plan for domestic trade shows the practical actions to further expand domestic demand. From this point of view, from September to the end of October; The trend of steel prices is bound to usher in a better fundamental environment and a loose external market. 5. Impact toughness: R 0.8 support is very likely to rise. Moreover, once there is demand to support the rise, the author is worried that the steel market, which has been suppressed for several months, will have a retaliatory surge. The market needs to be cautious

after the end of November or the sharp drop in demand, the steel price may enter the downward adjustment stage again.

after the possible sharp rise in the previous period, as the seasonal off-season of demand is approaching, the market will start a rational correction and start to overstock the price water; Thus ushering in the periodic weak adjustment stage can also be understood as laying a solid foundation for the technical callback of the market

the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which is related to the overall development of the country in the future, should have just completed the relatively simple tensile testing machine and can also use 3-phase asynchronous motor; Current bundle; A series of administrative rigid requirements and unreasonable construction needs have basically ended; At the same time, the high production capacity of the steel plant will also drop moderately, and the maintenance and production restriction will become the mainstream. Although it is not clear whether the winter steel storage market in 2012 will come or not; However, it is certain that the reduction of China's economic growth cannot be reversed in the short term, and the economic transformation is also being further implemented; The steel market's expectation of future market demand should continue to be rational. In this case, in the low profit era of the steel industry, the scale of hoarding to be increased may maintain the location in 2011; It is difficult to drive the high price of steel

to sum up, the author roughly divides the steel price trend in the second half of 2012 into three stages; The whole presents an inverted "U" curve; However, it does not mean that the steel price is completely the same, and the factors we set are limited; How the European debt crisis will go in the later stage; What major policy changes will China have at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will have a direct impact on the direction of domestic and even global markets; The steel market needs to pay close attention to these difficulties

(source: Alibaba)

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